A 2pm Sunday fixture against the Dolphins may seem like a mediocre match-up for the Dragons in the spectrum of the season – yet it marks a do-or-die destiny, that could extend a five-year finals drought.
Shane Flanagan will coach his 200th NRL game, following a tumultuous career in the box upstairs – that has featured triumphs and tribulations.
He becomes the 35th head coach in NRL history to reach the milestone – but if the Dragons lose, it will likely mark another lost season for the Red V.
Currently Flanagan’s men are ninth on the ladder, but tied for points at sixth – with seven wins and as many losses.
Shane Flanagan. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Ben Hunt, Jaydn Su’A and Zac Lomax have been named to back up post their Origin duties – though the latter is grappling with a knee issue. His kicking abilities off the tee, energy and 2024 form is a must if St George Illawarra are to win.
So why is their season hanging from a round 17 thread? Well, the Dragons have been dealt with a horror draw to round out the remaining 10 weeks.
Past the Dolphins, they face the Roosters, Broncos, Panthers, Storm, Bulldogs, Titans, Sharks, Eels and Raiders.
The first five of those games are extremely tough contests, even Canterbury are entering a purple patch of form that doesn’t seem temporary.
The Broncos on the other hand, whilst on the same competition points (18), have been well below their club standard. Coach Kevin Walters has been evidently frustrated over the past few weeks and the Origin period has caused Brisbane real problems.
They will wreak havoc towards the latter stage of the season, and are more than capable of pushing for a top four spot.
Of the remaining nine fixtures (bye in round 20), the Dragons should blow by Gold Coast – but clashes against the Eels and Raiders are no easy feat. Parramatta can turn it up late this season, playing the joker to destroy the dreams of many top eight hope clubs.
In 2023, the Raiders finished eighth on 32 competition points, the Green Machine also rounded out the finals bound sides in 2022, on 30 points.
With the insurgence of the Dolphins in 2023, each side plays 24 games and receives three byes. At a benchmark 30 point mark, the Dragons therefore have to win five of their remaining contests to ensure they are within range.
The bye will gift them with two points, but given the tough draw – winning against Redcliffe on Sunday is imperative.
Especially with the recent inconsistency of the Dolphins, who have a W-L-L-W-L record over their past five bouts, losing to Wayne Bennett is a stab in the back for supporters in the other red and white strip.
Yes, the Dragons have done swimmingly to remain in finals contention to date, equipped with arguably the worst depth in the NRL. Apart from their three state stars, their forward pack is depleted of flair and discipline. Luciano Leilua has been a great return pickup for the club – his offloading ability and difference on the edge has added a much needed string to their attack.
Otherwise, Flanagan’s bench provides little. Blake Lawrie, Ben Murdoch-Masila and Toby Couchman are all solid players – but aren’t genuine game changers. Lawrie and Masila are two truck it up carriers who come off blowing after 30 minutes of run and tackle – not much else.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Tyrell Sloan always provides moments of threat for the opposition, but he remains a defensive liability – as does Mosese Suli for such a big body.
Kyle Flanagan has been a consistent performer for his new club and is solid in defence. His pairing with Ben Hunt has shown promise at times. The two must be flawless to win against a frustrated Dolphins outfit, who are reeling after a close, thrilling six-point loss to Melbourne.
If the Dragons go down, it is hard to see them claw back any momentum for a finals feature. Especially with the form of South Sydney and the Sea Eagles, who will be revitalised with the comeback of Tom Trbojevic in the coming weeks.
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The manner in which they win holds zero significance – they simply need two points to inspire some kind of hope, before drawing curtains on September before July hits.
When the duo met in round two, Redcliffe thumped the Dragons 38-0. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow bagged a hattrick of tries during the one-sided affair.
It’s round 17 or nothing for St George Illawarra. Win, and fans have a coin-flip finals chance. Lose and it’s six years of misery.